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Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their TransientClimate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of itsmean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based onobserved historical warming to historical forcing and their uncertainty spreadis just as wide, mainly due to forcing uncertainty, and especially that ofaerosols. Contrary, no aerosols are involved in solar-cycle forcing, providingan independent, tighter, constraint. Here, we define a climate sensitivitymetric: time-dependent response regressed against time-dependent forcing,allowing phenomena with dissimilar time variations, such as the solar cyclewith 11-year cyclic forcing, to be used to constrain TCR, which has a lineartime-dependent forcing. We find a theoretical linear relationship between thetwo. The latest coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models obey the same linearrelationship statistically. The proposed observational constraint on TCR isabout 1/3 as narrow as existing constraints. The central estimate,2.2$^\circ$C, is at the midpoint of the spread of the latest generation ofclimate models, which are more sensitive than those of the previousgenerations.

Solar Cycle as a Distinct Line of Evidence Constraining Earth's Transient Climate Response