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The open ocean nitrogen cycle is being altered by increases in anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change. How the nitrogen cycle responds will determine long-term trends in net primary production (NPP) in the nitrogen-limited low latitude ocean, but is poorly constrained by uncertainty in how the source-sink balance will evolve. Here we show that intensifying nitrogen limitation of phytoplankton, associated with near-term reductions in NPP, causes detectable declines in nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N) and constitutes the primary perturbation of the 21 st  century nitrogen cycle. Model experiments show that ~75% of the low latitude twilight zone develops anomalously low δ 15 N by 2060, predominantly due to the effects of climate change that alter ocean circulation, with implications for the nitrogen source-sink balance. Our results highlight that δ 15 N changes in the low latitude twilight zone may provide a useful constraint on emerging changes to nitrogen limitation and NPP over the 21 st  century.

Impact of intensifying nitrogen limitation on ocean net primary production is fingerprinted by nitrogen isotopes