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Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quiteuniversal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have beenproposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we showthat the change in rheological behavior of the crust, from velocity weakeningto velocity strengthening, represents a viable mechanism to explain statisticalfeatures of both aftershocks and foreshocks. More precisely, we present a modelof the seismic fault described as a velocity weakening elastic layer coupled toa velocity strengthening visco-elastic layer. We show that the statisticalproperties of aftershocks in instrumental catalogs are recovered at aquantitative level, quite independently of the value of model parameters. Wealso find that large earthquakes are often anticipated by a preparatory phasecharacterized by the occurrence of foreshocks. Their magnitude distribution issignificantly flatter than the aftershock one, in agreement with recent resultsfor forecasting tools based on foreshocks.

The influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence