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Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO 2  concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO 2  increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO 2  concentration and satellite leaf area index measurements. Here, we use leaf area sensitivity to ambient CO 2  from the past 36 years of satellite measurements to obtain an Emergent Constraint (EC) estimate of GPP enhancement in the northern high latitudes at two-times the pre-industrial CO 2  concentration (3.4 ± 0.2 Pg C yr −1 ). We derive three independent comparable estimates from CO 2  measurements and atmospheric inversions. Our EC estimate is 60% larger than the conventionally used multi-model average (44% higher at the global scale). This suggests that most models largely underestimate photosynthetic carbon fixation and therefore likely overestimate future atmospheric CO 2  abundance and ensuing climate change, though not proportionately.

Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes