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Countries and cities are likely to enter economic activities that are relatedto those that are already present in them. Yet, while these path dependenciesare universally acknowledged, we lack an understanding of the diversificationstrategies that can optimally balance the development of related and unrelatedactivities. Here, we develop algorithms to identify the activities that areoptimal to target at each time step. We find that the strategies that minimizethe total time needed to diversify an economy target highly connectedactivities during a narrow and specific time window. We compare the strategiessuggested by our model with the strategies followed by countries in thediversification of their exports and research activities, finding thatcountries follow strategies that are close to the ones suggested by the model.These findings add to our understanding of economic diversification and also toour general understanding of diffusion in networks.

Optimal diversification strategies in the networks of related products and of related research areas