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Ecologists are challenged to construct models of the biological consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a metapopulation model to predict the distribution of the Glanville fritillary butterfly during 22 years across a large heterogeneous landscape with 4,415 small dry meadows. The majority (74%) of the 125 networks into which the meadows were clustered are below the extinction threshold for long-term persistence. Among the 33 networks above the threshold, spatial configuration and habitat quality rather than the pooled habitat area predict metapopulation size and persistence, but additionally allelic variation in a SNP in the gene Phosphoglucose isomerase ( Pgi ) explains 30% of variation in metapopulation size. The  Pgi  genotypes are associated with dispersal rate and hence with colonizations and extinctions. Associations between  Pgi  genotypes, population turnover and metapopulation size reflect eco-evolutionary dynamics, which may be a common feature in species inhabiting patch networks with unstable local dynamics.

Ecological and genetic basis of metapopulation persistence of the Glanville fritillary butterfly in fragmented landscapes