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Interplate megathrust earthquakes have inflicted catastrophic damage on humansociety. An extremely hazardous megathrust earthquake is predicted to occuralong the Nankai Trough off southwestern Japan, an economically active anddensely populated area with historical records of megathrust earthquakes.Megathrust earthquakes are the result of a plate subduction mechanism and occurat interplate slip-deficit (or coupling) regions. Many past studies haveattempted to capture slip-deficit rate (SDR) distributions for assessing futureearthquake disasters. However, they could not capture a total view of themegathrust earthquake source region because they had no seafloor geodetic data.The Hydrographic and Oceanographic Department of the Japan Coast Guard (JHOD)has been developing a highly precise and sustainable seafloor geodeticobservation network deployed in this subduction zone to broadly obtain directinformation related to offshore SDR. Here, we present seafloor geodeticobservation data and an offshore interplate SDR distribution model. Our datasuggests that most offshore regions in this subduction zone have positive SDRs.Specifically, our observations indicate previously unknown high-SDR regionsthat are important for tsunami disaster mitigation and low-SDR regions that areconsistent with distributions of shallow slow earthquakes and subductingseamounts. This is the first direct evidence suggesting that couplingconditions are related to these seismological and geological phenomena. Theseobservations provide new fundamental information for inferring megathrustearthquake scenarios and interpreting research on the Nankai Trough subductionzone.

Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone