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The probability of survival is conventionally calculated from autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (aHCT). Conditional survival takes into account the changing probability of survival with time survived, but this is not known for aHCT populations. We determined disease- and cause-specific conditional survival for 2388 patients treated with aHCT over a period of 20 years at a single institution. A total of 1054 deaths (44% of the cohort) were observed: 78% attributed to recurrent disease; 9% to subsequent malignancies and 6% to cardiopulmonary disease. Estimated probability of relative survival was 62% at 5 years and 50% at 10 years from aHCT. On the other hand, the 5-year relative survival was 70, 75, 81 and 88% after having survived 1, 2, 5 and 10 years after aHCT, respectively. The cohort was at a 13.9-fold increased risk of death compared with the general population (95% confidence interval (CI)=13.1-14.8). The risk of death approached that of the general population for 10-year survivors (standardized mortality ratio (SMR)=1.4, 95% CI=0.9-1.9), with the exception of female Hodgkin's lymphoma patients transplanted before 1995 at age 40 years (SMR=6.0, 95% CI=1.9-14.0). Among those who had survived 10 years, nonrelapse-related mortality rates exceeded relapse-related mortality rates. This study provides clinically relevant survival estimates after aHCT, and helps inform interventional strategies.

Conditional survival and cause-specific mortality after autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation for hematological malignancies