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The timing of bud burst (TBB) in temperate trees is a key adaptive trait, the expression of which is triggered by temperature gradients across the landscape. TBB is strongly correlated with flowering time and is therefore probably mediated by assortative mating. We derived theoretical predictions and realized numerical simulations of evolutionary changes in TBB in response to divergent selection and gene flow in a metapopulation. We showed that the combination of the environmental gradient of TBB and assortative mating creates contrasting genetic clines, depending on the direction of divergent selection. If divergent selection acts in the same direction as the environmental gradient (cogradient settings), genetic clines are established and inflated by assortative mating. Conversely, under divergent selection of the same strength but acting in the opposite direction (countergradient selection), genetic clines are slightly constrained. We explored the consequences of these dynamics for population maladaptation, by monitoring pollen swamping. Depending on the direction of divergent selection with respect to the environmental gradient, pollen filtering owing to assortative mating either facilitates or impedes adaptation in peripheral populations.

Evolutionary responses of tree phenology to the combined effects of assortative mating, gene flow and divergent selection