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Data from an on-going trial of co-ordinating care for terminally ill cancer patients are used to investigate whether the Spitzer Quality of Life (QL) Index can be used to reduce prognostic uncertainty in terminal care. Four questions are addressed. First, can doctors and nurses distinguish between patients with a prognosis of more or less than 1 year? Second, do the medical and nursing staff differ in their ability to estimate prognosis? Third, are there differences in the length of life remaining between groups of patients with different QL Index scores? Fourth, how well does the QL Index predict the likelihood of individual patients dying within 6 months of assessment? Doctors and nurses assigned between 17 and 25% of patients to the wrong prognostic group and were as likely to over-estimate as to under-estimate life expectancy. Medical and nursing staff did not differ in their ability to make prognostic judgements. Patients with a low QL Index score were more likely to die within 6 months than those with higher scores, but scores on the Index were not strong predictors of 6-month survival in individual patients. The Index is not accurate enough to be used to predict what sort of treatment terminally ill patients will require in the future and for how long. Nevertheless, it may prove valuable for those planning services for terminally ill cancer patients who require information on the levels of need in a population.

Can the Spitzer Quality of Life Index help to reduce prognostic uncertainty in terminal care?