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The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizationsin prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of thefourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despitemuch research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research hasbeen devoted to the emergence of the IVC, which shows continuous culturalprecursors since at least the seventh millennium BC. To understand the decline,we believe it is necessary to investigate the rise of the IVC, i.e., theestablishment of agriculture and livestock, dense populations and technologicaldevelopments 7000--3000 BC. Although much archaeological information isavailable, our capability to investigate the system is hindered by poorlyresolved chronology, and by a lack of field work in the intermediate areasbetween the Indus valley and Mesopotamia. We thus employ a complementarynumerical simulation to develop a consistent picture of technology,agropastoralism and population developments in the IVC domain. Results fromthis Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator show that there is(1) fair agreement between the simulated timing of the agricultural transitionand radiocarbon dates from early agricultural sites, but the transition issimulated first in India then Pakistan; (2) an independent agropastoralismdeveloping on the Indian subcontinent; and (3) a positive relationship betweenarcheological artifact richness and simulated population density which remainsto be quantified.

A simulation of the Neolithic transition in the Indus valley