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The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why noevidence of extraterrestrial civilisations was found so far on Earth and in ourSolar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of suchcivilisations, which accounts for self-destruction, colonisation andastrophysical destruction mechanisms of civilisations including gamma-raybursts, type Ia and type II supernovae as well as radiation from thesupermassive black hole. We adopt conservative estimates regarding theefficiency of such processes and find that astrophysical effects can influencethe development of intelligent civilisations and change the number of systemswith such civilisations by roughly a factor of 2; potentially more if thefeedback is enhanced. Our results show that non-equilibrium evolution allowsfor solutions in-between extreme cases such as "rare Earth" or extremecolonisation, including scenarios with civilisation fractions between 10^{-2}and 10^{-7}. These would imply still potentially large distances to the nextsuch civilisations, particularly when persistence phenomena are beingconsidered. As previous studies, we confirm that the main uncertainties are dueto the lifetime of civilisations as well as the assumed rate of colonisation.For SETI-like studies, we believe that unbiased searches are needed consideringboth the possibilities that the next civilisations are nearby or potentiallyvery far away.

The Fermi paradox: Impact of astrophysical processes and dynamical evolution