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The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number ofobservable civilizations in the Galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcomeis so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions canrange from a handful of observable civilizations in the observable universe totens of millions per Milky Way-sized galaxy. A statistical investigation showsthat the Drake equation, despite its uncertainties, delivers robust predictionsof the likelihood that the prevalent form of intelligence in the universe isartificial rather than biological. The likelihood of artificial intelligencefar exceeds the likelihood of biological intelligence in all casesinvestigated. This conclusion is contingent upon a limited number of plausibleassumptions. The significance of this outcome in explaining the Fermi paradoxis discussed.

Artificial versus Biological Intelligence in the Cosmos: Clues from a Stochastic Analysis of the Drake Equation