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Unstable shear layers in environmental and industrial flows roll up into aseries of vortices, which often form complex nonlinear merging patterns likepairs and triplets. These patterns crucially determine the subsequentturbulence, mixing and scalar transport. We show that the late-time, highlynonlinear merging patterns are predictable from the linearized initial state.The initial asymmetry between consecutive wavelengths of the vertical velocityfield provides an effective measure of the strength and pattern of vortexmerging. The predictions of this measure are substantiated using directnumerical simulations. We also show that this measure has significantimplications in determining the route to turbulence and the ensuing turbulencecharacteristics.

Predicting vortex merging and ensuing turbulence characteristics in shear layers from initial conditions