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In this paper, the methods of waterborne transport data mining, emission reduction scenario analysis and ship emission calculation according to engine power are combined to establish models of ship emission inventory, reduction trend analogy, and investment effect analysis, which can achieve quantitative evaluations of ship emissions inventories, classification ratios and emission reduction effects of different scenarios, including to calculate air pollutant emissions of various kinds of ships in different areas and working conditions; to predict cargo turnovers of inland water, domestic coastal and marine ships and foreign marine ships; to analyze analogically emissions and reductions according to growths of national GDP and waterborne transport; to estimate the ship load tons and numbers of different kinds of vessels, as well as reductions per investment or operating costs of reduction facilities on board. The evaluation results show that the total emission of CO 2 in China’s inland water and coastal areas from all kinds of transport ships and in other regions from domestic marine ships reached a peak in about 2020 to 2027 when fuel consumption per unit turnover in 2020 decrease by 27%%~45% compared with that in 2005 and then fell 20%~25% by 2030. In the scenarios when NOx and SOx emission reduction targets designed in accordance with relevant international conventions and domestic laws and regulations, NOx, SOx, PM emission reduction effects in China’s from all kinds of transport ships are significant, while the effects were limited or very limited if the reduction were only implemented 50% or 25% of designed targets. According to emission inventory and classification ratios, the control priority should be given to the larger emission sources, in turn: host engines of transport ships in navigation areas, auxiliary engines of transport ships when mooring or berthing in port areas, and the auxiliary operation ships in port areas, and comprehensive prevention and control countermeasures should be taken for effective control of emissions from inland water ships, foreign marine and domestic coast and marine ships in coastal areas.

Ship emission reduction effect evaluation of air pollution control countermeasures