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The paper aims to demonstrate the potential of structuring the future growth of Cities of the South to reduce the expected growth in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from significant growth in urban population, economy, urban spatial footprint, and hence motorised travel. A situation that cannot be redressed by the typical responses of promoting non-motorised and public transport use because Cities of the South already display high levels of NMT and PT. The paper applies the findings of research aimed at determining whether increasing accessibility always increases utility to inform the planned location of projected economic and population growth for Cape Town. Alternative land use structures are devised in which future population growth (i.e. housing and community facilities) and related work opportunities are allocated in an attempt to minimise motorised travel but yet achieve “sufficient” accessibility for four income groups. The City of Cape Town has modelled the effect of applying a TOD urban land use and transport system in 2032. The paper allocates the changes in trip making between 2013 and 2032 in support of the concept of sufficient accessibility. This shows a significant reduction in motorised travel and greenhouse gas emissions when compared to the TOD approach.

transportation research procedia

Mitigating the impact of the expected increase in the population, economy and urban footprint in Cities of the South on greenhouse gas emissions: The case of Cape Town