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In this paper we develop a cost-benefit analysis of a major researchinfrastructure, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the highest-energy acceleratorin the world, currently operating at CERN. We show that the evaluation ofbenefits can be made quantitative by estimating their welfare effects ondifferent types of agents. Four classes of direct benefits are identified,according to the main social groups involved: (a) scientists; (b) students andyoung researchers; (c) firms in the procurement chain and other organizations;(d) the general public, including onsite and website visitors and other mediausers. These benefits are respectively related to the knowledge output ofscientists; human capital formation; technological spillovers; and directcultural effects for the general public. Welfare effects for taxpayers can alsobe estimated by the contingent valuation of the willingness to pay for a purepublic good for which there is no specific direct use (i.e., as non-use value).Using a Monte Carlo approach, we estimate the conditional probabilitydistribution of costs and benefits for the LHC from 1993 until its planneddecommissioning in 2025, assuming a range of values for some criticalstochastic variables. We conservatively estimate that there is around a 90\%probability that benefits exceed costs, with an expected net present value ofabout 2.9 billion euro, not considering the unpredictable applications ofscientific discovery.

Forecasting the Socio-Economic Impact of the Large Hadron Collider: a Cost-Benefit Analysis to 2025 and Beyond