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Frequently, trends in record AM1.5 power-conversion efficiencies versus time,such as the NREL efficiency chart, are used to analyze the relative merits ofdifferent photovoltaic material technologies. However, this approach belies theeffort expended in achieving these levels of performance. We introducecumulative publications as a proxy for total R&D efforts and find surprisinglythat silicon, Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGSe), CdTe, and halide perovskite technologieshave each followed essentially the same learning curve of 20-24% efficiencywithin 10,000 publications and a consistent marginal rate of 5% efficiencyincrease per factor of 10 in publications. While learning spillover from non-PVtechnologies, cross-pollination from other PV technologies, and hiddencommercial effort are not accounted for by this metric, this analysis stillyields useful and novel insights into PV technology trajectories. Trajectoriesbelow this learning curve have required more total effort per performance andplateaus of efficiency stagnation at large numbers of publications may indicate(but do not guarantee) the existence of fundamental barriers to commerciallyrelevant performance. Lastly, examples to watch are identified for technologiescurrently exhibiting higher marginal slopes, including some that appeareddormant by this metric in past years.

Efficiency versus effort: a better way to compare best photovoltaic research cell efficiencies?