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The forecasting of meteor showers is currently very good at predicting thetiming of meteor outbursts, but still needs further work regarding the level ofa given shower. Moreover, uncertainties are rarely provided, leaving the enduser (scientist, space agency or the public) with no way to evaluate how muchthe prediction is trustworthy. A confidence index for the forecasting of meteorshowers is presented. It allows one to better understand how a specificforecasting has been performed. In particular, it underlines the role of ourcurrent knowledge of the parent body, its past orbit and past activity. Therole of close encounters with planets for the time period considered isquantified as well. This confidence index is a first step towards betterconstrained forecasting of future meteor showers.

A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers