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We formulate and study a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere modelwith an emphasis on the impact of radiative and heat fluxes and of thefrictional coupling between the two components. This model version extends aprevious 24-variable version by adding a dynamical equation for the passiveadvection of temperature in the ocean, together with an energy balance model.  The bifurcation analysis and the numerical integration of the model revealthe presence of low-frequency variability (LFV) concentrated on and near along-periodic, attracting orbit. This orbit combines atmospheric and oceanicmodes, and it arises for large values of the meridional gradient of radiativeinput and of frictional coupling. Chaotic behavior develops around this orbitas it loses its stability; this behavior is still dominated by the LFV ondecadal and multi-decadal time scales that is typical of oceanic processes.Atmospheric diagnostics also reveals the presence of predominant low- andhigh-pressure zones, as well as of a subtropical jet; these features recallrealistic climatological properties of the oceanic atmosphere.  Finally, a predictability analysis is performed. Once the decadal-scaleperiodic orbits develop, the coupled system's short-term instabilities --- asmeasured by its Lyapunov exponents --- are drastically reduced, indicating theocean's stabilizing role on the atmospheric dynamics. On decadal time scales,the recurrence of the solution in a certain region of the invariant subspaceassociated with slow modes displays some extended predictability, as reflectedby the oscillatory behavior of the error for the atmospheric variables at longlead times.

Low-frequency variability and heat transport in a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model