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The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of"the most expensive sheet iron all over the world", more expensive than gold. Acitizen has to bid in an monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his newprivate car. We perform statistical analysis to investigate the influence ofthe minimal price $P_{\min}$ of the bidding winners, the quota $N_{\rm{quota}}$of private car license plates, the number $N_{\rm{bidder}}$ of bidders, as wellas two external shocks including the legality debate of the auction in 2004 andthe auction regime reform in January 2008 on the average price $P_{\rm{mean}}$of all bidding winners. It is found that the legality debate of the auction hadmarginal transient impact on the average price in a short time period. Incontrast, the change of the auction rules has significant permanent influenceon the average price, which reduces the price by about 3020 yuan Renminbi. Itmeans that the average price exhibits nonlinear behaviors with a regime change.The evolution of the average price is independent of the number$N_{\rm{bidder}}$ of bidders in both regimes. In the early regime beforeJanuary 2008, the average price $P_{\rm{mean}}$ was influenced only by theminimal price $P_{\min}$ in the preceding month with a positive correlation. Inthe current regime since January 2008, the average price is positivelycorrelated with the minimal price and the quota in the preceding month andnegatively correlated with the quota in the same month. We test the predictivepower of the two models using 2-year and 3-year moving windows and find thatthe latter outperforms the former. It seems that the auction market becomesmore efficient after the auction reform since the prediction error increases.

Analyzing the prices of the most expensive sheet iron all over the world: Modeling, prediction and regime change