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Despite the coupled nature of water and electricity demand, the two utilitiesare often managed by different entities with minimal interaction. Neglectingthe water-energy demand nexus leads to to suboptimal management decisions,particularly under climate change. Here, we leverage state-of-the-art machinelearning and contemporary climate analogs to project the city-level coupledwater and electricity demand of 46 major U.S. cities into the future. Theresults show that many U.S. cities may experience an increase in electricity(water) demand of up to 20% (15%) due to climate change under a high emissionsscenario, with a clear north-south gradient. In the absence of appropriatemitigation strategies, these changes will likely stress current infrastructure,limiting the effectiveness of the ongoing grid decarbonization efforts. In theevent that cities are unable to match the increasing demand, there may beincreased occurrence of supply shortages, leading to blackouts withdisproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations. As such, reliableprojections of future water and electricity demand under climate change arecritical not only for preventing further exacerbation of the existingenvironmental injustices but also for more effective design and execution ofclimate change mitigation and adaptation plans.

Contemporary climate analogs project north-south polarization of urban water-energy nexus across US cities under warming climate