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Vertical transport in the ocean plays a critical role in the exchange offreshwater, heat, nutrients, and other biogeochemical tracers. While there aresituations where vertical fluxes are important, studying the vertical transportand displacement of material requires analysis over a finite interval of time.One such example is the subduction of fluid from the mixed layer into thepycnocline, which is known to occur near density fronts. Divergence has beenused to estimate vertical velocities indicating that surface measurements,where observational data is most widely available, can be used to locate thesevertical transport conduits. We evaluate the correlation between surfacesignatures derived from Eulerian (horizontal divergence, density gradient, andvertical velocity) and Lagrangian (dilation rate and finite time Lyapunovexponent) metrics and vertical displacement conduits. Two submesoscaleresolving models of density fronts and a data-assimilative model of the westernMediterranean were analyzed. The Lagrangian surface signatures locatesignificantly more of the strongest displacement features and the difference inthe expected displacements relative to Eulerian ones increases with the lengthof the time interval considered. Ensemble analysis of forecasts from theMediterranean model demonstrates that the Lagrangian surface signatures can beused to identify regions of strongest downward vertical displacement evenwithout knowledge of the true ocean state.

Lagrangian surface signatures reveal upper-ocean vertical displacement conduits near oceanic density fronts