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SummaryThe Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578km2 and a drainage area of 100,458km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE). The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature) and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature). Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22%) in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10%) and summer (up to 18%), and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%)

Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact