English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Zendy Open

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Insights

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Zendy Tools

Zendy Plus

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate modelbased on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulationclimate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th centuryglobal surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate isresonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have beenassociated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiterand Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal andmultidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to wellreconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is ableto forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data coveringthe period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likelyrelated to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and60-62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetaryoscillations. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cyclescan be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, weshow that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. The same IPCCprojected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3-1.2K by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0-3.6 K projected warming. The results ofthis paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms thatexplain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs andthat climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically inducedand, in first approximation, can be forecast.

Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models