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We participated in the M4 competition for time series forecasting anddescribe here our methods for forecasting daily time series. We used anensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a method that we refer toas the correlator. Our retrospective analysis using the ground truth valuespublished by the M4 organisers after the competition demonstrates that thecorrelator was responsible for most of our gains over the naive constantforecasting method. We identify data leakage as one reason for its success,partly due to test data selected from different time intervals, and partly dueto quality issues in the original time series. We suggest that futureforecasting competitions should provide actual dates for the time series sothat some of those leakages could be avoided by the participants.

Correlated daily time series and forecasting in the M4 competition