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Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, ananalytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New YorkCity and Switzerland, with a correlation coefficient exceeding 98.8%,suggesting that finer models are unnecessary with such macroscopic data. Thefitting is used to extract estimates of the doubling time in the ascendingphase of the epidemic, the mean recovery time and, for those who requiremedical intervention, the mean hospitalization time. Large variations can beobserved among different outbreaks.

infectious disease modelling

Hospitalization dynamics during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave: SIR  modelling compared to Belgium, France, Italy, Switzerland and New York City  data