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Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potentialof this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental modelfor assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general,asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious.Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states ofNew York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relativelyineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission ofCOVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask usedecreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to theproduct of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contactsblocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while theimpact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear,indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Masksare found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthypersons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoptionscenarios suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately(50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17--45% of projected deathsover two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by34--58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Our results suggest use offace masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailingcommunity transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-widebenefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction withother non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and whenadoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high.

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic