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From the results of a comprehensive asteroid population evolution model, weconclude that the YORP-induced rotational fission hypothesis can be consistentwith the observed population statistics of small asteroids in the main beltincluding binaries and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is theasteroid rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011), which incorporates both theYORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model therotational fission hypothesis and the binary evolution model of Jacobson &Scheeres (2011). The asteroid population evolution model is highly constrainedby these and other previous works, and therefore it has only two significantfree parameters: the ratio of low to high mass ratio binaries formed afterrotational fission events and the mean strength of the binary YORP (BYORP)effect. We successfully reproduce characteristic statistics of the smallasteroid population: the binary fraction, the fast binary fraction,steady-state mass ratio fraction and the contact binary fraction. We find thatin order for the model to best match observations, rotational fission produceshigh mass ratio ($> 0.2$) binary components with four to eight times thefrequency as low mass ratio ($< 0.2$) components, where the mass ratio is themass of the secondary component divided by the mass of the primary component.This is consistent with post-rotational fission binary system mass ratio beingdrawn from either a flat or a positive and shallow distribution, since the highmass ratio bin is four times the size of the low mass ratio bin; this is incontrast to the observed steady-state binary mass ratio, which has a negativeand steep distribution. This can be understood in the context of theBYORP-tidal equilibrium hypothesis, which predicts that low mass ratio binariessurvive for a significantly longer period of time than high mass ratio systems.

Matching asteroid population characteristics with a model constructed from the YORP-induced rotational fission hypothesis