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A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolutionof the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewableresources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginalcosts can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energycommodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energyresource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributionsof non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energycommodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows ofenergy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can beused in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of productionof energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid priceinelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generatelimiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is usefulto characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewableresources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is howeverdesigned for use within economic or technology models that allow technologysubstitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector modelFTT:Power. Policy implications are given.

On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities