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For natural analogue study of CO2 leakage, the Matsushiro field in central Japan was selected to investigate hydrogeochemical behavior due to CO2 leakage from a fault zone during the period of the Matsushiro Earthquake Swarm between 1965 and 1967. One of the main objectives of the modeling study is to understand effects of hydrogeological characteristics of shallow aquifers and seal mechanism due to mineral precipitation in a fault zone. Reactive geochemical transport simulations were carried out using TOUGHREACT. Based on the historical data including discharge rate, chemical composition of water and seismic activity, we developed a numerical model to reproduce the geochemical behavior during and after the swarm earthquakes. A two-dimensional model (2000 m×1800 m) for the fault zone using the Multiple Interacting Continua (MINC) method was set up to evaluate geochemical effects during degassing and mixing of brine upwelling along the fault zone. The simulation results can capture the observed trend at the Matsushiro field. Supercritical and gaseous CO2 occur in the deep and the shallow fracture zones, respectively. During the earthquake swarm, CO2 saturated brine moves up along the fracture zone and CO2 degassing occurs in the shallow zone. Subsequently, water pH increases and a small amount of calcite precipitates. Lateral groundwater flow in shallow aquifers, which transports the CO2 away from the fault zone, makes CO2 surface discharge small. At the same time, calcite dissolves after the swarm due to lateral fresh water recharge. The result is consistent with the fact that no calcite observed in the core from the 80 m borehole drilled during the course of this study, indicating that CO2 discharge is likely affected by lateral shallow groundwater flow. Measurements of surface CO2 flux and soil gas δ13C indicated that little seepage of CO2 occurs in the area of the fan deposits at present, 40 years after the earthquake swarm. Using the same model, long term leakage simulations (if supercritical CO2 leaked along fault zone from the storage reservoir) were carried out to test whether CO2 surface leakage occurs or not. Two simulations were performed, with CO2 upflow rates of 50,000 and 100,000 kg/year in an area of 25 m×25 m. CO2 surface leakage does not occur in the first case, while CO2 leakage occurs in the second case. CO2 surface leakage is reduced because CO2 dissolves in groundwater flowing laterally in shallow aquifer. These simulations indicate that it is important to understand hydrogeological characteristics of aquifers underlain by reservoir as well as cap rocks

Hydrogeochemical Modeling for Natural Analogue Study of CO2 Leakage due to Matsushiro Earthquake Swarm