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To successfully manage marine fisheries using an ecosystem-based approach,long-term predictions of fish stock development considering changingenvironmental conditions are necessary. Such predictions can be provided byend-to-end ecosystem models, which couple existing physical and biogeochemicalocean models with newly developed spatially-explicit fish stock models.Typically, Individual-Based Models (IBMs) and models based onAdvection-Diffusion-Reaction (ADR) equations are employed for the fish stockmodels. In this paper, we present a novel fish stock model called SPRAT forend-to\hyp{}end ecosystem modeling based on Population Balance Equations (PBEs)that combines the advantages of IBMs and ADR models while avoiding their maindrawbacks. SPRAT accomplishes this by describing the modeled ecosystemprocesses from the perspective of individuals while still being based onpartial differential equations. We apply the SPRAT model to explore awell-documented regime shift observed on the eastern Scotian Shelf in the 1990sfrom a cod-dominated to a herring-dominated ecosystem. Model simulations areable to reconcile the observed multitrophic dynamics with documented changes inboth fishing pressure and water temperature, followed by a predator-preyreversal that may have impeded recovery of depleted cod stocks. We concludethat our model can be used to generate new hypotheses and test ideas aboutspatially interacting fish populations, and their joint responses to bothenvironmental and fisheries forcing.

SPRAT: A Spatially-Explicit Marine Ecosystem Model Based on Population Balance Equations