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Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper presents a congestion propagation model based on SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) epidemic model for capturing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. In addition, as congestion propagation is the key parameter in the congestion propagation model, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed. A gray system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures.

Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model