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The rise of new product classes such as biologics and complex molecules over the past two decades have brought to light some of the unique market dynamics that such products face. While we have seen and experienced the inception, growth and expansion phase of such products, the ongoing incumbent decline due to loss of exclusivity (LoE) is yet to be fully experienced. This raises the question of how one may go about modelling such a scenario given that forecasting the expected erosion curves accurately can ensure full brand value is retained for pharmaceutical companies.

Patent Cliffs in the Era of Complex Therapies and Biologics