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Worldwide, for older fields that are in the late stages of production period, production wells that lose production value due to high water cut are usually shut down. In this situation, the remaining oil in the reservoir will be re-enriched under the influence of gravity differentiation and capillary forces. Production practices find when the production well is closed for a long time and then opened for restarting production, the water cut drops dramatically and the output rise sharply. In order to anticipate the effects of enrichment of remaining oil in the reservoir, this paper analyzes 10 influencing factors respectively. Secondly, change of water cut before and after shut-in is used as the evaluation index of residual oil enrichment effect. Numerical simulation method is used to simulate the influence of different factors on the effect of external migrations of remaining oil at different levels. Grey correlation analysis is utilized to rank the correlation of 10 factors on residual oil enrichment and then we can get the main controlling factors affecting residual oil enrichment. Finally, the response surface analysis method is used to establish a 5-factor 3-level model, and the corresponding prediction results are obtained through numerical simulation experiments. The main control factors are fitted to obtain the prediction formula of the remaining oil enrichment effect. As a result, we can use the prediction formula to forecast the enrichment effect of remaining oil under different reservoir parameters.

Influence factors and effect prediction model of the tertiary migrations of remaining oil