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This study is aimed at testing Mechanical earth modeling (MEM) and Sand onset production prediction (SOP) models using well log and core data to estimate the mechanical properties of the rock, in-situ stresses and the critical conditions at which the rock failure may occur. New numerical models were developed to predict the onset of sand production for Well X. The outputs from MEM were coupled with the Mohr Coulomb failure criterion to calculate the critical wellbore pressure of the well and consequently the depth of the rock at which failure may occur. The results showed that at depth of 1061.68–1098.10 m, the calculated critical wellbore pressures were negatives, which reveal low possibility of sand production. However, at a depth of 1098.25–2230.89 m, the calculated critical wellbore pressures were positives. In this depth range, there was high possibility of rock failure. In conclusion, based on the findings, Well X may produce sand at depth deeper than 1100 m. Therefore, mitigation and preventive actions should be planned for Well X to handle and manage the possible sand production from the identified interval.

Mechanical earth modeling and sand onset production prediction for Well X in Malay Basin