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As the highest carbon emission country in the world, it is particularly important to investigate the implementation effect of China’s carbon emission trading (CET) system. Because of the complexity to figure out the counterfactual effect when a single unit is treated, the counterfactual and causal effects of the CET system on the carbon emissions are seldom identified. In order to overcome the weakness that counterfactual effect is difficult to be verified and policy persistence is difficult to be estimated, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Regression Discontinuity (RD) are combined to better understand and evaluate the impact of CET system in China. Through the analysis, it is found that CET system is effective in China, but the effect is driven by economic development, energy consumption, FDI and other variables. Because of the differences in economic, geographical, technological and environmental conditions in various areas, each Chinese provincial government should formulate a targeted policy according to local conditions, ensuring an economic and environmentally sustainable growth in the future.

Did carbon emission trading system reduce emissions in China? An integrated approach to support policy modeling and implementation