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Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is an important wetland in the world. The scientific assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs in Poyang Lake Basin is of great significance for maintaining regional ecological balance and global biodiversity. This study uses land use as the main data source and the “equivalent factor method” to estimate the ecosystem service value of the Poyang Lake Basin from 1990 to 2015; the study also analyzes the trade-off synergy among ecosystem services. On this basis, land use information was simulated under three scenarios: planning scenario (government policy-oriented), development scenario (economic benefit-oriented), and protection scenario (ecological protection-oriented). The trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under different scenarios were evaluated. The results demonstrate that the ecosystem service value for the entire basin steadily increased from 1990 to 2015. The relationships among ecosystem services in the basin were mainly synergistic, and there were few trade-offs. Among the three simulation scenarios, the ecosystem service value was the highest and the trade-offs among ecosystem services were the lowest under the protection scenario, the ecosystem service value was the lowest and the trade-offs among ecosystem services were the highest under the development scenario, and the trade-offs under the planning scenario were between the values of the protection scenario and the development scenario. From the perspective of maximizing the value of ecosystem services and minimizing trade-offs in ecosystem services, the protection scenario is the optimal scenario among the three scenarios.

Past and future ecosystem service trade-offs in Poyang Lake Basin under different land use policy scenarios