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Trace elements such as cadmium, arsenic, zinc or selenium increase or decrease risk of a wide range of human diseases. Their levels in toenails may provide a measure of mid-term intake of trace elements for studies in humans. However, in biologically and clinically aggressive diseases as pancreatic cancer, the progression of the disease could modify such concentrations and produce reverse causation bias. The aim was to analyze the influence of specific time intervals between several clinical events and the collection of toenails upon concentrations of trace elements in patients with pancreatic cancer. Subjects were 118 incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma prospectively recruited in eastern Spain. Toenails were collected at cancer diagnosis, and soon thereafter interviews were conducted. Information on cancer signs and symptoms was obtained from medical records and patient interviews. Levels of 12 trace elements were determined in toenail samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. General linear models adjusting for potential confounders were applied to analyze relations between log concentrations of trace elements and the time intervals, including the interval from first symptom of cancer to toenail collection (iST). Toenail concentrations of the 12 trace elements were weakly or not influenced by the progression of the disease or the diagnostic procedures. Concentrations of aluminum were slightly higher in subjects with a longer iST (age, sex and stage adjusted geometric means: 11.44 vs. 7.75 µg/g for iST &gt; 120 days vs. ≤ 40 days). There was a weak inverse relation of iST with concentrations of zinc and selenium (maximum differences of about 20 and 0.08 µg/g, respectively). Conclusions: concentrations of the trace elements were weakly or not influenced by the development of the disease before toenail collection. Only concentrations of aluminum increased slightly with increasing iST, whereas levels of zinc and selenium decreased weakly. Even in an aggressive disease as pancreatic cancer, toenail concentrations of trace elements may provide a valid measure of mid-term intake of trace elements, unaffected by clinical events and disease progression.

Timing of Toenail Collection and Concentrations of Metals in Pancreatic Cancer. Evidence Against Disease Progression Bias