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Consumer adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles is a crucial step in improving energy efficiency of the light-duty vehicle sector. To promote adoption, policymakers have employed various demand- and supply-side policies including incentives, fuel economy standards, zero emission vehicle mandate, among others. This paper measures the changes in consumers’ purchase motivations and latent demand for hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles in the wake of such programs by analyzing the past 11 years of new vehicle buyer survey data in the USA with more than 1 million respondents. The analysis reveals that electric vehicles—including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and pure battery electric, collectively termed xEVs—had the potential to secure as much as ~ 11% of the US market in 2015, but the actual market share was only one-third of this. A narrowing of the consumer’s  valuation gap  between buyers of non-xEVs and xEVs for purchase motivations—including fuel economy, environmental friendliness, technical innovation, and price—is responsible for the increase in the latent demand for xEVs. The term  valuation gap  refers to the difference between the average rating given by non-xEV and xEV buyers for a particular purchase motivation question in the survey. The closer the ratings, the smaller will be the valuation gap. Policy instruments such as sales-weighted fuel economy target show strong correlation with the consumer valuation gap. In combination with demand-side policies that make xEVs more accessible to mainstream consumers, they could be considered as viable tools if policymakers are seeking to nudge consumers toward xEVs.

Understanding latent demand for hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles using large-scale longitudinal survey data of US new vehicle buyers