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Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O 3max ) and daily maximum air temperature (T max ) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O 3max  and T max  as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first century. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions, a substantial increase of T max  in the months from April to September arose, with a mean value of 5 K in the period 2081–2100 compared with the historical period 1986–2005. Statistical downscaling projections pointed to a mean O 3max  rise of 17 μg/m 3 . The frequency of threshold exceedances showed also large changes. Hot days may occur in the future at about 30% of all days. Exceedances of O 3max  &gt; 100 μg/m 3  were projected to increase to about 40% of all days at urban traffic sites and up to about 70% in the rural regional background. Days with O 3max  &gt; 120 μg/m 3  occurred still at about 20% of all days at urban traffic sites and at about 45% in rural regional background locations. With respect to combined T max  &gt; 30 °C and O 3max  &gt; 100 μg/m 3  events in the future, an occurrence of such events at about 27–29% of all days in the summer months from April to September was assessed. The increases were mainly associated with the strong temperature rise until the end of the century. In summary, the projected T max  and O 3max  changes point to a considerable increased health burden in Bavaria until the end of the century, resulting from strong changes of both variables and their associated individual and combined impact on human health.

Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany