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In the Netherlands, national assessments at the end of primary school (Grade 6) show a decline of achievement on problems of complex or written arithmetic over the last two decades. The present study aims at contributing to an explanation of the large achievement decrease on complex division, by investigating the strategies students used in solving the division problems in the two most recent assessments carried out in 1997 and in 2004. The students' strategies were classified into four categories. A data set resulted with two types of repeated observations within students: the nominal strategies and the dichotomous achievement scores (correct/incorrect) on the items administered.It is argued that latent variable modeling methodology is appropriate to analyze these data. First, latent class analyses with year of assessment as a covariate were carried out on the multivariate nominal strategy variables. Results showed a shift from application of the traditional long division algorithm in 1997, to the less accurate strategy of stating an answer without writing down any notes or calculations in 2004, especially for boys. Second, explanatory IRT analyses showed that the three main strategies were significantly less accurate in 2004 than they were in 1997.

Solution Strategies and Achievement in Dutch Complex Arithmetic: Latent Variable Modeling of Change