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In this paper we investigate whether and if so why different pathways to higher education (HE) have an effect on the development of the intention to study and its motivational factors of pupils from different social backgrounds. In Germany as well as in many other countries, non-traditional pathways—mostly vocational oriented schools, but also comprehensive schools—lead to eligibility for HE. Drawing on the theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen in Organ Behav Human Decis Process 50:179–211, 1991); Fishbein and Ajzen  (Belief, attitude, intention and behaviour. An introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, MA, 1975) and empirical results, we assume that the intention to study and motivational factors (= attitudes towards HE, the perceptions of expectations of relevant others, control beliefs) of pupils in vocationally oriented pathways develop less favourably than those of pupils in comprehensive schools, and that for pupils in vocationally oriented pathways the effects of social backgrounds on intentions and motivational factors become stronger due to school-type specific college-going cultures. Our database consists of the responses of 7133 pupils in comprehensive schools and vocationally oriented two-year and three-year pathways to HE at the beginning (t1) and the end (t2) of upper secondary education. We use Propensity Score Matching to disentangle selection and socialization effects. Our results show that among vocationally oriented pathways, only two-year pathways divert pupils from HE, partly due to decreasing expectations of relevant others and attitudes towards HE. In contrast, the intention to study and the motivational factors among pupils in direct as well as in three-year vocationally oriented pathways remain stable during upper secondary education. No differential effects of the pathways on pupils from different social backgrounds could be observed. Thus, vocationally oriented pathways do not in general divert their pupils from HE, but if they do so, all pupils are affected regardless of social background.

The development of the intention to study of pupils from different social backgrounds in non-traditional pathways to higher education