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The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspotcycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used topredict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past thismethod has been subjected to severe criticism. In this communication we showthat this simple method is reliable and can profitably be used for predictionpurposes. With the 13-month smoothed R$_{min}$ of 1.8 at the beginning, it ispredicted that the R$_{max}$ of the ongoing cycle will be around 85$\pm$17,suggesting that Cycle 24 may be of moderate strength. Based on a second orderpolynomial dependence between the rise time (T$_R$) and R$_{max}$, it ispredicted that Cycle 24 will reach its smoothed maximum amplitude during thethird quarter of the year 2013. An important finding of this paper is that therise time cycle amplitude relation reaches a minimum at about 3 to 3.5 yearscorresponding to a cycle amplitude of about 160. The Waldmeier effect breaks atthis point and T$_{R}$ increases further with increase in R$_{max}$. Thisfeature, we believe, may put a constraint on the flux transport dynamo modelsand lead to more accurate physical principles based predictions.

solar physics

The amplitude of sunspot minimum as a favorable precursor for the  prediction of the amplitude of the next solar maximum and the limit of the  Waldmeier effect