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In this work, we try to answer the question of which method, peer review vsbibliometrics, better predicts the future overall scholarly impact ofscientific publications. We measure the agreement between peer reviewevaluations of Web of Science indexed publications submitted to the firstItalian research assessment exercise and long-term citations of the samepublications. We do the same for an early citation-based indicator. We findthat the latter shows stronger predictive power, i.e., it more reliablypredicts late citations in all the disciplinary areas examined, and for anycitation time window starting one year after publication.

Peer review vs bibliometrics: which method better predicts the scholarly impact of publications?