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Multi-input multi-output production technologies can be represented using distance functions. Econometric estimation of these functions typically involves factoring out one of the outputs or inputs and estimating the resulting equation using maximum likelihood methods. A problem with this approach is that the outputs or inputs that are not factored out may be correlated with the composite error term. Fernandez et al. (J Econ 98:47–79, 2000) show how to solve this so-called ‘endogeneity problem’ using Bayesian methods. In this paper I use the approach to estimate an output distance function and an associated index of total factor productivity (TFP) change. The TFP index is a new index that satisfies most, if not all, economically-relevant axioms from index number theory. It can also be exhaustively decomposed into a measure of technical change and various measures of efficiency change. I illustrate the methodology using state-level data on U.S. agricultural input and output quantities (no prices are needed). Results are summarized in terms of the characteristics (e.g., means) of estimated probability density functions for measures of TFP change, technical change and efficiency change.

Econometric estimation of distance functions and associated measures of productivity and efficiency change