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I describe an analytical approximation for calculating the short-termprobability of loss of a chromosome under the neutral Wright-Fisher model withrecombination. I also present an upper and lower bound for this probability.Exact analytical calculation of this quantity is difficult and computationallyexpensive because the number of different ways in which a chromosome can belost, grows very large in the presence of recombination. Simulations indicatethat the probabilities obtained using my approximate formula are alwayscomparable to the true expectations provided that the number of generationsremains small. These results are useful in the context of an algorithm that werecently developed for simulating Wright-Fisher populations forward in time.C++ programs that can efficiently calculate these formulas are available onrequest.

Probability that a chromosome is lost without trace under the neutral Wright-Fisher model with recombination