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Context Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm outbreaks have been intensively studied, forecasting outbreaks remains challenging. During outbreaks, budworm-linked warblers (Tennessee, Cape May, and bay-breasted warbler) show a strong positive response to increases in spruce budworm, but little is known about the relative timing of these responses. Objectives We hypothesized that these warblers could be used as sentinels of future defoliation of budworm host trees. We examined the timing and magnitude of the relationships between defoliation by spruce budworm and changes in the probability of presence of warblers to determine whether they responded to budworm infestation before local defoliation being observed by standard detection methods. Methods We modelled this relationship using large-scale point count surveys of songbirds and maps of cumulative time-lagged defoliation over multiple spatial scales (2–30 km radius around sampling points) in Quebec, Canada. Results All three warbler species responded positively to defoliation at each spatial scale considered, but the timing of their response differed. Maximum probability of presence of Tennessee and Cape May warbler coincided with observations of local defoliation, or provided a one year warning, making them of little use to guide early interventions. In contrast, the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler consistently increased 3–4 years before defoliation was detectable. Conclusions Early detection is a critical step in the management of spruce budworm outbreaks and rapid increases in the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler could be used to identify future epicenters and target ground-based local sampling of spruce budworm.

Insectivorous songbirds as early indicators of future defoliation by spruce budworm