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In North America and around the globe, there has been emerging recognition of the size and scope of urban shrinkage, yet little is understood about how decline impacts commercial centers and downtowns. In order to facilitate geographically targeted policymaking, this paper examines the physical patterns of downtown decline in three distinct regions. We seek to test the hypothesis that differences in the process of urban decline in downtown districts vary due to national or historic context. Using statistical analysis and direct observations, we found that while the scale of population decline was greatest in New England, downtowns in both Ontario and Québec have seen substantial decline and have appeared to have better weathered the change with respect to physical signs of decline.

Vacancy in shrinking downtowns: a comparative study of Québec, Ontario, and New England