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Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediatecomplexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets tosustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3Dthermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an oceanmodel. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios withatmospheric CO2 concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value,and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sus-tained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almostcomplete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely causedby increased surface melting. Signicant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes manycenturies to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent tomore than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time,surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of thepresent-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerablyfrom subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km,especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a localwarming of 3–4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the rst 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account ofincreased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. TheGreenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise duringthe rst 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constantgreenhouse gas forcing after the rst 70–140 years of the simulatio

surveys in geophysics

Response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multi-Millennial Greenhouse Warming in the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM